From Reluctant Respect to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital in the dead of night, culminating in the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That was the scenario Russia's president envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

In public, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of international law and a worrying development. Yet beyond the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once imagined, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general planned to be fighting for this long.”

These observations have fueled a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on behalf of her country given how audacious the American action seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever believed Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners fall from power or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the limits of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and ideological ally, and the two leaders have long-term relations, forcing Moscow into no option but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Still, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they contend, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly power-based world order – one where power, rather than law, determines results.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president approvingly. “Ousting Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The principle of might makes right is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”