Daily Murders in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent Under the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Data

The average number of per-day homicides monthly in Mexico has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new administrative data. However, security analysts have advised that murder numbers may not signal improved countrywide safety.

Notable Decline in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in the month of November as opposed to almost 87 when the President took the presidency in September. This data was provided by the chief of the country’s federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that we’ve had during these past months is remarkably important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, adding that in November the lowest amount of murders were registered for any November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Fierce drug cartel rivalries, coupled with the administration's heavily militarised operations to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s murder rate soar in recent years. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a murder figure over four times higher than the US. Since then, killings have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security plan for an apparently steeper decline in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the President said: “We have a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed monitoring town by town in some cases. The plan functions. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The key components of Sheinbaum’s safety plan involve:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Greater cooperation between government departments.

Analyst Caution and Data Concerns

But, public safety experts warned that using murder data to draw a conclusion of pacification was flawed. This is especially true given the uptick in other crimes such as abductions.

“This would be excellent news if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just look at the murder data and say: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total dropped by more than 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the same timeframe the previous year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is no longer useful for gauging the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the will to accurately recognize and categorize remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday killings was also an issue because it could mask periods when there were notably spiking numbers of killings.

“Using the per-day mean makes spikes of violence invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the government can cite the success of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s very in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Anger

Yet despite these actions, Mexico continues to be plagued by high bloodshed, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-related violence. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of youth demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The government presents [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of improvement. Politically it’s extremely potent, socially it’s highly debatable,” Vargas concluded.