Britain's finance minister has tackled the imminent financial plan like a unwilling swimmer creeping into icy water, endeavoring to ease the unpleasantness through step-by-step entry.
She started tackling the challenge of insufficient revenue at the end of the summer months. At first, she refused to stand by previous assertions that increases in taxation in last year's budget would be the ultimate ones.
Then, in early November, she took a more significant move into the freezing waves. A speech committed to "do what is necessary" to finance government services and keep debt expenses low.
In just 10 days, the finance ministry had pulled back the hint. The manifesto commitment remained intact ultimately. As any cold-water swimmer realizes, this aborted dive and shivering retreat is the least effective of all techniques. Nothing draws out the pain like indecision.
It is challenging to be resolute when deciding between types of internally generated damage.
Optimism has not been a great approach for the administration. At the core of the prime minister's general election campaign was the futile expectation of somehow satisfying the public's desire for better public services without overturning significant amounts of Conservative revenue decreases.
Not once has both Starmer or the chancellor effectively communicated a sense of collective goal to justify all this pain. Partly that is a problem of personality appeal. Both leaders are remarkably alike in their poor communication skills, wooden and reserved in a way that pushes listeners back instead of drawing them in.
Similarly to public demand to invest in state services has forced the finance ministry to admit that taxes must increase, the commercial requirement of increasing economic expansion makes it increasingly difficult to disregard the cost of detachment from the EU market.
Officials devoted a period dabbling in the initial phase of improved relations with the EU: proposals to end border inspections on farm products; a student movement initiative. Ambition went a more substantial on energy, military and protection collaboration, but no major deals has so far been agreed.
In the absence clear direction and impetus from No 10, negotiations are bogged down. EU officials says economic advantages are unlocked with payments to the European funds. British officials are aware that's the arrangement. That doesn't cause them enthusiastic for a public row and Nigel Farage screaming betrayal over whatever price ends up being paid.
Economic reality has provoked some change in the administration's tone on the European question. The chancellor has begun naming leaving Europe alongside the coronavirus crisis as a factor of financial harm that the exchequer is working hard to address. Cabinet members have followed suit, although they deliberately ascribe the fault to "a bad Brexit deal" or "the way we left", never just "withdrawal".
The problem of the UK's ongoing association with the European Union can't be simplified to technical adjustments and border mechanisms when the whole geopolitical order is in tumultuous flux. Given everything that has occurred since 2016, it feels legitimate still to be posing the fundamental issue: were Britain's interests advanced by departing the EU?
These constitute harsh, difficult truths about the UK's position in turbulent global circumstances. It is expected that the prime minister and the chancellor recoil from the responsibility. It would take them outside their comfort zone, into forces that they will not resist. So as an alternative they continue nervously moving along the shore, hoping that possibly in the near future the circumstances will turn.
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