A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
